ISSUE 23



Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture (KNUCA)

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VENTYLIATSIIA, OSVITLENNIA TA TEPLOHAZOPOSTACHANNIA

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G. Ratushnyak, Ph.D, professor. Vinnytsia National Technical University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine, ratusnakg@gmail.com
M. Sviderevych, Post-graduate student. Vinnytsia National Technical University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine, maryna.bt09@i.ua


Logical-Probabilistic Assessment of the Risks of Accidents on the Pipelines of Heating Networks


Abstract. For multi-factor analysis of the influence of various factors on the operational reliability of thermal networks, there is a need to apply the theory of fuzzy logic and probability theory. The methodology of logical-probabilistic accident risk assessment allows making choices regarding the efficiency of heat supply systems and the introduction of the latest energy-saving technologies during their reconstruction. Based on the analysis of expert assessments of the emergence of hazardous situations on the pipeline part of the heat supply system, a generalized scheme for the development of a possible accident, taking into account the factors affecting the reliability of the system in general, has been developed. The value of the fuzzy probability of emergency occurrence on the pipelines of heat networks P~ = (0,178; 0,657; 0,304; 0,400) was obtained. The evaluation of the bounce tree allows determining the occurrence of an event that can lead to an unwanted violation of the heat supply system. Experimental data on the monitoring of changes in the initial indicator (characteristics of the thermal network) in the variation of the factors of influence on the developed method makes it possible to specify the justification of decision-making in the management of the reliability of the district heating system, taking into account the quantitative and qualitative parameters of the object.


Key words: reliability of heating networks, fuzzy logic, probability theory, tree of failures, scheme of development of an accident


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